KFUM Oslo 1–4 Haugesund: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Haugesund

M. Ndiaye 67'

S. Diarra 50', 46', 29'

C. Niyukuri 10'

11/2/2025

Eliteserien · Round 27KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

KFUM Oslo53%

×Draw23%

Haugesund24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.13

KFUM Oslo

1.82

Haugesund

1.13

KFUM Oslo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

1.44

creates per match

1.25

1.01

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.44

Haugesund

1.25

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.01

Haugesund

2.20

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

KFUM Oslo-0.21scores less

Haugesund-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

76%

KFUM Oslo or Haugesund

77%

Draw or Haugesund

47%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

30%

Haugesund wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

84%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

54%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

27%

Haugesund 1+ goals

68%

Haugesund 2+ goals

31%

Haugesund 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

69%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.44 + Haugesund defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.82

Haugesund attack 1.25 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

53%

level

23%

Haugesund scores more

24%

KFUM Oslo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

S. Diarra

Haugesund · F

9.3

Match Events

10'

C. Niyukuri↳ N. Hamalainen

17'

D. Schneider← F. Berglie

29'

S. Diarra↳ C. Niyukuri

41'

Miika Koskela

45+5'

David Hickson Gyedu

46'

M. Njie← A. Nouri

46'

M. Fischer← M. Koskela

46'

S. Diarra↳ B. Leite

50'

S. Diarra

57'

M. Ndiaye← B. Kristensen

58'

T. Haltvik← D. Hickson

65'

Parfait Bizoza

65'

M. Hope← B. Leite

65'

I. Camara← C. Niyukuri

67'

M. Ndiaye

74'

A. Bondhus← E. Rohd

78'

H. V. Karlsen← T. Nyhammer

81'

H. Udahl← B. Skaret

85'

Mikkel Fischer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KFUMHaugesund

Overview

61%Possession39%

27Total Shots11

4.73Expected Goals (xG)2.57

16Corners1

9Fouls7

Shots

27Total Shots11

8On Target8

8Off Target3

11Blocked0

22Inside Box8

5Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

458Total Passes321

362Accurate Passes222

79%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Eliteserien: KFUM Oslo 1–4 Haugesund

Haugesund beat KFUM Oslo 4-1 in Eliteserien on November 2, 2025.

Goals: C. Niyukuri (10'), S. Diarra (29', 46', 50'), M. Ndiaye (67').

KFUM Oslo controlled possession (61%) and registered 27 shots to 11.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: KFUM Oslo 1–4 Haugesund