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Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
KFUM Oslo
KFUM Oslo
J. Nuñez 44'
5/5/2024EliteserienEliteserien · Round 6Haugesund Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Haugesund32%
×Draw28%
KFUM Oslo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.07
KFUM Oslo
1.25

KFUM Oslo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.05
KFUM Oslo
1.10

allows per match

Haugesund
1.39
KFUM Oslo
1.09

finishing

Haugesund-0.05on par
KFUM Oslo+0.19scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

KFUM Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
60%
Haugesund or KFUM Oslo
72%
Draw or KFUM Oslo
68%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
12%
KFUM Oslo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
66%
Haugesund 2+ goals
29%
Haugesund 3+ goals
9%
KFUM Oslo 1+ goals
71%
KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
36%
KFUM Oslo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
44%
KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 15 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.09 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.05 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

KFUM Oslo attack 1.10 + Haugesund defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Haugesund scores more
32%
level
28%
KFUM Oslo scores more
40%

KFUM Oslo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
Bruno LeiteHaugesundHaugesund · M
7.7

Match Events

17'
Sory Diarra
18'
M. Hope← C. Niyukuri
44'
J. Nuñez
46'
M. Konradsen← T. Nyhammer
62'
Moussa Njie← P. Dahl
69'
M. Sauer← A. Lúðvíksson
72'
S. Sandal← R. Svindland
72'
T. Haltvik← J. Nuñez
80'
Oscar Krusnell
81'
L. Séoné← Bruno Leite
86'
M. Ndiaye← R. Rasch
90+2'
Teodor Haltvik

Possession

55%Haugesund

Shots

15Haugesund

Pass accuracy

52%Haugesund

Statistics

HaugesundKFUM
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots4
1.09Expected Goals (xG)0.58
6Corners1
12Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots4
2On Target1
6Off Target3
7Blocked0
10Inside Box3
5Outside Box1
Passing
55%Possession45%
542Total Passes459
450Accurate Passes355
83%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo

KFUM Oslo beat Haugesund 1-0 in Eliteserien on May 5, 2024.

Goals: J. Nuñez (44').

Haugesund controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Haugesund.