KFUM Oslo 1–0 Bryne: Result & Stats | 1. Division

KFUM Oslo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bryne

J. El Abdellaoui 88'

10/8/2023

1. Division · Round 26KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

KFUM Oslo50%

×Draw24%

Bryne26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchBryne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.19

KFUM Oslo

1.73

Bryne

1.19

KFUM Oslo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 70 away

1.81

creates per match

1.29

1.08

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.81

Bryne

1.29

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.08

Bryne

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Bryne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Bryne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

74%

KFUM Oslo or Bryne

76%

Draw or Bryne

50%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

27%

Bryne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

82%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

52%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

25%

Bryne 1+ goals

70%

Bryne 2+ goals

33%

Bryne 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

65%

Bryne (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Bryne away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.81 + Bryne defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bryne attack 1.29 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

50%

level

24%

Bryne scores more

26%

KFUM Oslo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

E. Saunes← A. Dybevik

71'

L. Sodal

77'

S. Sandal← R. Svindland

77'

J. El Abdellaoui← O. Okeke

81'

S. Torgersen Jonassen← R. Undheim

88'

J. El Abdellaoui

90+1'

A. Aleesami← J. Hummelvoll-Nuñez

KFUM

Bryne

99

5

26

20

24

4

8

▼

Dybevik

9

Sødal

10

▼

7

18

1

5

4

15

16

6

▼

7

8

14

9

▼

Hummelvol

18

▼

Okeke

Manager: J. Moesgaard

77'▲S. Sandal←▼R. Svindland

77'▲J. El Abdellaoui←▼O. Okeke

90+1'▲A. Aleesami←▼J. Hummelvoll-Nuñez

KFUM Oslo substitutes

25Sandal28Abdellaoui20Aleesami2Ghaedamini17Haltvik21Halvorsen29Harrison33Silfver-Ramage31Makani

Manager: K. Knappen

45+1'▲E. Saunes←▼A. Dybevik

81'▲S. Torgersen Jonassen←▼R. Undheim

Bryne substitutes

14Saunes32Jonassen2Rotihaug3Aamodt6Mneney12Bergene

1. Division: KFUM Oslo 1–0 Bryne

KFUM Oslo beat Bryne 1-0 in 1. Division on October 8, 2023.

Goals: J. El Abdellaoui (88').

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Bryne — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: KFUM Oslo 1–0 Bryne