KFUM Oslo 2–4 Aalesund: Result & Stats

KFUM Oslo

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Aalesund

J. Taaje 38'

B. Njie 30'

T. Kallevåg 71'

S. Nordli 58'

S. Haugen 49'

K. Ødemarksbakken 25'

10/29/2021

1. Division · Round 26KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

KFUM Oslo44%

×Draw24%

Aalesund31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFUM OsloExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.33

KFUM Oslo

1.63

Aalesund

1.33

KFUM Oslo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

1.81

creates per match

1.59

1.08

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

KFUM Oslo

1.81

Aalesund

1.59

allows per match

KFUM Oslo

1.08

Aalesund

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Aalesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Oslo ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

KFUM Oslo or draw

69%

KFUM Oslo or Aalesund

76%

Draw or Aalesund

56%

Winning margin

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

23%

Aalesund wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

80%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

48%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

22%

Aalesund 1+ goals

74%

Aalesund 2+ goals

38%

Aalesund 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

59%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Oslo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Oslo attack 1.81 + Aalesund defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.63

Aalesund attack 1.59 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

KFUM Oslo scores more

44%

level

24%

Aalesund scores more

31%

KFUM Oslo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KFUM Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

30'

38'

45'

46'

N. Castro← K. Ødemarksbakken

46'

N. Hopland← Nenass

49'

S. Haugen

58'

S. Nordli

62'

D. Gaye← F. Dahl

71'

T. Kallevåg

75'

M. Alm

75'

D. Tavakoli← J. Hummelvoll-Nunez

75'

P. Romsaas← A. Sanyang

75'

C. Lindquist← B. Njie

81'

M. Mahnin← T. Sørås

89'

I. Määttä← S. Nordli

90+2'

M. Diaw← T. Kallevåg

KFUM

Aalesund

13

5

33

18

3

14

⚽

▼

Kallevåg

6

Segberg

11

⚽

▼

Nordli

7

▼

Nenass

15

⚽

▼

Ødemarksb

22

⚽

1

33

2

4

25

⚽

Taaje

17

▼

Dahl

5

Olsen

21

▼

Sørås

11

⚽

▼

Njie

16

▼

Hummelvol

10

▼

Sanyang

Manager: J. Isnes

62'▲D. Gaye←▼F. Dahl

75'▲D. Tavakoli←▼J. Hummelvoll-Nunez

75'▲P. Romsaas←▼A. Sanyang

75'▲C. Lindquist←▼B. Njie

81'▲M. Mahnin←▼T. Sørås

KFUM Oslo substitutes

3Gaye9Tavakoli19Romsaas24Lindquist27Mahnin23Aarstad28Brauti

Manager: L. Nilsen

46'▲N. Castro←▼K. Ødemarksbakken

46'▲N. Hopland←▼Nenass

89'▲I. Määttä←▼S. Nordli

90+2'▲M. Diaw←▼T. Kallevåg

Aalesund substitutes

9Castro38Hopland19Määttä17Diaw1Lie10Brajanac16Hatlehol

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund

Aalesund beat KFUM Oslo 4-2 in 1. Division on October 29, 2021.

Goals: K. Ødemarksbakken (25'), B. Njie (30'), J. Taaje (38'), S. Haugen (49'), S. Nordli (58'), T. Kallevåg (71').

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.

KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund — 1. Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: KFUM Oslo vs Aalesund