Aalesund 2–2 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

KFUM Oslo

I. Djantou 88'

H. Melland 16'

H. Hoseth 63'

S. Hestnes 12'

4/12/2026

Eliteserien · Round 4Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Aalesund38%

×Draw25%

KFUM Oslo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.41

Aalesund

1.44

KFUM Oslo

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.73

creates per match

1.09

1.72

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Aalesund

1.73

KFUM Oslo

1.09

allows per match

Aalesund

1.72

KFUM Oslo

1.14

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Aalesund-0.44scores less

KFUM Oslo+0.05on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

63%

Aalesund or KFUM Oslo

75%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

62%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

18%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

76%

Aalesund 2+ goals

42%

Aalesund 3+ goals

18%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

76%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

41%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

51%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.73 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

KFUM Oslo attack 1.09 + Aalesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aalesund scores more

38%

level

25%

KFUM Oslo scores more

37%

Aalesund at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Saunes

KFUM Oslo · D

8.2

Match Events

12'

S. Hestnes↳ J. Hjorth

16'

H. Melland↳ U. Charles

34'

Robin Rasch

58'

H. Hoseth← J. Hjorth

58'

R. E. Vinge← M. Eikrem

62'

Davíð Snær Jóhannsson

63'

H. Hoseth↳ T. Haltvik

75'

K. Nesso← U. Charles

75'

E. Myrlid← D. Johannsson

76'

E. Osenbroch← M. Christensen

76'

B. Kristensen← R. Rasch

81'

I. Djantou← P. Aukland

83'

Martin Tangen Vinjor

85'

A. Nouri← M. Vinjor

85'

M. Grodem← T. Haltvik

88'

I. Djantou↳ J. Orsahl

90+5'

Endre Hjertager Osenbroch

90+5'

H. Hammer← H. Melland

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalesundKFUM

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots17

1.31Expected Goals (xG)2.44

8Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots17

4On Target7

3Off Target8

7Blocked2

11Inside Box11

3Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

507Total Passes452

395Accurate Passes334

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

-1.19Goals Prevented-1.19

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1