Aalesund 2–1 KFUM Oslo: Result & Stats

Aalesund

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

KFUM Oslo

N. Castro 55'

T. Agdestein 45'

R. Rasch 44' (pen)

9/18/2019

1. Division · Round 23Color Line Stadion (Ålesund)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Aalesund51%

×Draw22%

KFUM Oslo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalesundExpected goals in this matchKFUM Oslo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.35

Aalesund

1.95

KFUM Oslo

1.35

Aalesund creates 44% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

2.18

creates per match

1.52

1.18

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Aalesund

2.18

KFUM Oslo

1.52

allows per match

Aalesund

1.18

KFUM Oslo

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalesund+0.00on par

KFUM Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

KFUM Oslo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw

73%

Aalesund or KFUM Oslo

78%

Draw or KFUM Oslo

49%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+

29%

KFUM Oslo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals

86%

Aalesund 2+ goals

58%

Aalesund 3+ goals

31%

KFUM Oslo 1+ goals

74%

KFUM Oslo 2+ goals

39%

KFUM Oslo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)

66%

KFUM Oslo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

KFUM Oslo away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.71 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 2.18 + KFUM Oslo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.95

KFUM Oslo attack 1.52 + Aalesund defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aalesund scores more

51%

level

22%

KFUM Oslo scores more

27%

Aalesund at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

D. Gaye← K. Brix

42'

D. Gretarsson

44'

R. RaschPenalty

45'

55'

56'

56'

59'

60'

71'

H. Guèye← H. Fridjonsson

82'

D. Holm← Y. Moula

85'

Nenass← J. Hatlehol

90'

A. Lie

Aalesund

KFUM

1

33

28

25

8

7

⚽

Rasch

21

Sørås

31

▼

Brix

9

▼

Agouda

11

Tavakoli

19

▼

1

4

3

15

18

16

▼

Hatlehol

11

Þrándarso

27

Azofeifa

10

▼

Fridjonss

23

⚽

▼

Agdestein

9

⚽

Castro

Manager: L. Bohinen

60'▲O. Lie←▼T. Agdestein

71'▲H. Guèye←▼H. Fridjonsson

85'▲Nenass←▼J. Hatlehol

Aalesund substitutes

5Lie14Guèye7Nenass17Fet21Larsen25Hay26Berntzen

Manager: J. Isnes

19'▲D. Gaye←▼K. Brix

59'▲L. Larsen←▼A. Agouda

82'▲D. Holm←▼Y. Moula

KFUM Oslo substitutes

3Gaye26Larsen6Holm4Jarl12Skjærstein15Gueye