KFC Uerdingen 05 5–2 Borussia M'gladbach II

KFC Uerdingen 05

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Borussia M'gladbach II

F. Baydar 90+2'

P. Talarski 90'

M. Odenthal 70'

M. Haar 35'

Unknown 26'

I. Jung 45'

T. Reitz 23'

8/6/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Grotenburg-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KFC Uerdingen 0545%

×Draw20%

Borussia M'gladbach II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KFC Uerdingen 05Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'gladbach II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.08

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.33

Borussia M'gladbach II

2.08

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.17

3.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.00

Borussia M'gladbach II

1.17

allows per match

KFC Uerdingen 05

3.00

Borussia M'gladbach II

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Borussia M'gladbach II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFC Uerdingen 05 ↓

Borussia M'gladbach II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

KFC Uerdingen 05 or draw

64%

KFC Uerdingen 05 or Borussia M'gladbach II

80%

Draw or Borussia M'gladbach II

55%

Winning margin

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+

26%

Borussia M'gladbach II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals

90%

KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals

67%

KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals

41%

Borussia M'gladbach II 1+ goals

87%

Borussia M'gladbach II 2+ goals

61%

Borussia M'gladbach II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)

56%

Borussia M'gladbach II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFC Uerdingen 05 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Borussia M'gladbach II away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 2.00 + Borussia M'gladbach II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Borussia M'gladbach II attack 1.17 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more

45%

level

20%

Borussia M'gladbach II scores more

36%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

T. Reitz

26'

35'

M. Haar

45'

I. Jung

70'

M. Odenthal

90'

P. Talarski

90+2'

F. Baydar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff