Borussia M'gladbach II vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — League #87 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Borussia M'gladbach II30%
KFC Uerdingen 0539%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 19% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Borussia M'gladbach II ↓
Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Borussia M'gladbach II at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches
KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Borussia M'gladbach II attack 0.75 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88
KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 0.00 + Borussia M'gladbach II defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
KFC Uerdingen 05 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Fortuna Köln
Paderborn II
FC Gutersloh
Schalke 04 II
Sportfreunde Siegen
Bonner SC
Bochum II
Wiedenbrück
SV Rodinghausen
Köln II
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
Sportfreunde LotteBorussia M'gladbach II
Wuppertaler SV
FC Bocholt
SSVg Velbert
Borussia Dortmund IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Borussia M'gladbach II host KFC Uerdingen 05 on Saturday, 19 October 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #87 2026/2027 season.
Borussia M'gladbach II 1 – 0 KFC Uerdingen 05
Borussia M'gladbach II beat KFC Uerdingen 05 1-0 in League #87 on October 19, 2024.
Goals: N. Pesch (80').
The match was played at Grenzlandstadion in Mönchengladbach.