Borussia M'gladbach II 4–0 KFC Uerdingen 05

Borussia M'gladbach II

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

KFC Uerdingen 05

1/16/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3BORUSSIA-PARK Nebenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Borussia M'gladbach II56%

×Draw20%

KFC Uerdingen 0524%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Borussia M'gladbach IIExpected goals in this matchKFC Uerdingen 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.42

Borussia M'gladbach II

2.23

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.42

Borussia M'gladbach II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.17

creates per match

1.00

1.83

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Borussia M'gladbach II

2.17

KFC Uerdingen 05

1.00

allows per match

Borussia M'gladbach II

1.83

KFC Uerdingen 05

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Borussia M'gladbach II+0.00on par

KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia M'gladbach II ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Borussia M'gladbach II or draw

76%

Borussia M'gladbach II or KFC Uerdingen 05

80%

Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05

44%

Winning margin

Borussia M'gladbach II wins by 2+

34%

KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Borussia M'gladbach II 1+ goals

89%

Borussia M'gladbach II 2+ goals

65%

Borussia M'gladbach II 3+ goals

38%

KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals

76%

KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals

41%

KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Borussia M'gladbach II (draw refunded)

70%

KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Borussia M'gladbach II at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Borussia M'gladbach II attack 2.17 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.23

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.00 + Borussia M'gladbach II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Borussia M'gladbach II scores more

56%

level

20%

KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more

24%

Borussia M'gladbach II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Borussia M'gladbach II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff