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KF Gostivari vs Besa Dobërdoll — First League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
10/5/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Stadion Boris Trajkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

KF Gostivari53%
×Draw26%
Besa Dobërdoll21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.52
Besa Dobërdoll
0.86

KF Gostivari creates 77% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.27
Besa Dobërdoll
0.82

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.91
Besa Dobërdoll
1.76

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
79%
KF Gostivari or Besa Dobërdoll
74%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
47%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
27%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
78%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
45%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
20%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
58%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
21%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
71%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.27 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Besa Dobërdoll attack 0.82 + KF Gostivari defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
53%
level
26%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
21%

KF Gostivari at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KF Gostivari vs Besa Dobërdoll

KF Gostivari and Besa Dobërdoll drew 1-1 in First League on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Boris Trajkovski in Skopje.