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KF Gostivari vs Besa Dobërdoll — Second League 2019

KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
3/4/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 18Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

KF Gostivari40%
×Draw27%
Besa Dobërdoll33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KF Gostivari
1.33
Besa Dobërdoll
1.19

KF Gostivari creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 30 away

creates per match

KF Gostivari
1.83
Besa Dobërdoll
1.67

allows per match

KF Gostivari
0.72
Besa Dobërdoll
0.83

finishing

KF Gostivari+0.00on par
Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KF Gostivari ↓

Besa Dobërdoll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

KF Gostivari or draw
67%
KF Gostivari or Besa Dobërdoll
73%
Draw or Besa Dobërdoll
60%

Winning margin

KF Gostivari wins by 2+
18%
Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KF Gostivari 1+ goals
74%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
38%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
15%
Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
70%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
33%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
55%
Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KF Gostivari at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.72 · 36 matches

Besa Dobërdoll away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KF Gostivari attack 1.83 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.33

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.67 + KF Gostivari defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

KF Gostivari scores more
40%
level
27%
Besa Dobërdoll scores more
33%

KF Gostivari at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: KF Gostivari 1–0 Besa Dobërdoll

KF Gostivari beat Besa Dobërdoll 1-0 in Second League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.