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Besa Dobërdoll vs KF Gostivari — First League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KF Gostivari
KF Gostivari
4/6/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Stadiumi i qytetit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll33%
×Draw28%
KF Gostivari39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.09
KF Gostivari
1.22

KF Gostivari creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
1.06
KF Gostivari
0.87

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
1.56
KF Gostivari
1.13

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
KF Gostivari+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

KF Gostivari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
61%
Besa Dobërdoll or KF Gostivari
72%
Draw or KF Gostivari
67%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
13%
KF Gostivari wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
66%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
30%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
10%
KF Gostivari 1+ goals
70%
KF Gostivari 2+ goals
34%
KF Gostivari 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
46%
KF Gostivari (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

KF Gostivari away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 1.06 + KF Gostivari defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

KF Gostivari attack 0.87 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
33%
level
28%
KF Gostivari scores more
39%

KF Gostivari at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KF Gostivari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besa Dobërdoll vs KF Gostivari

Besa Dobërdoll beat KF Gostivari 2-1 in First League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stadiumi i qytetit in Gostivar.