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Kelen vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Northwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
5/26/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 30Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kelen25%
×Draw24%
III. Kerületi TUE52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
1.14
III. Kerületi TUE
1.75

III. Kerületi TUE creates 54% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.10
III. Kerületi TUE
1.67

allows per match

Kelen
1.82
III. Kerületi TUE
1.17

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
48%
Kelen or III. Kerületi TUE
76%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
75%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
10%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
68%
Kelen 2+ goals
32%
Kelen 3+ goals
11%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
83%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
52%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
32%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.82 · 40 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.10 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

III. Kerületi TUE attack 1.67 + Kelen defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kelen scores more
25%
level
24%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
52%

III. Kerületi TUE at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kelen vs III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Kelen 2-1 in NB III - Northwest on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.