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Kelen vs III. Kerületi TUE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Kelen
Kelen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
2/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 22Kelen SC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kelen24%
×Draw25%
III. Kerületi TUE51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kelen
0.98
III. Kerületi TUE
1.56

III. Kerületi TUE creates 59% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kelen
1.08
III. Kerületi TUE
2.02

allows per match

Kelen
1.11
III. Kerületi TUE
0.88

finishing

Kelen+0.00on par
III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelen ↓

III. Kerületi TUE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kelen or draw
49%
Kelen or III. Kerületi TUE
75%
Draw or III. Kerületi TUE
76%

Winning margin

Kelen wins by 2+
8%
III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kelen 1+ goals
62%
Kelen 2+ goals
26%
Kelen 3+ goals
8%
III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
79%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
46%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kelen (draw refunded)
32%
III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelen at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

III. Kerületi TUE away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelen attack 1.08 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.02 + Kelen defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kelen scores more
24%
level
25%
III. Kerületi TUE scores more
51%

III. Kerületi TUE at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kelen vs III. Kerületi TUE

III. Kerületi TUE beat Kelen 4-1 in NB III - Southwest on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Kelen SC Sporttelep in Budapest.