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III. Kerületi TUE vs Kelen — NB III - Northwest 2019

III. Kerületi TUE
III. Kerületi TUE
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kelen
Kelen
11/10/2024NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 15Hévízi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

III. Kerületi TUE63%
×Draw20%
Kelen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

III. Kerületi TUE
2.10
Kelen
0.99

III. Kerületi TUE creates 112% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

creates per match

III. Kerületi TUE
2.13
Kelen
0.85

allows per match

III. Kerületi TUE
1.13
Kelen
2.08

finishing

III. Kerületi TUE+0.00on par
Kelen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

III. Kerületi TUE ↓

Kelen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

III. Kerületi TUE or draw
83%
III. Kerületi TUE or Kelen
80%
Draw or Kelen
37%

Winning margin

III. Kerületi TUE wins by 2+
39%
Kelen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

III. Kerületi TUE 1+ goals
88%
III. Kerületi TUE 2+ goals
62%
III. Kerületi TUE 3+ goals
35%
Kelen 1+ goals
63%
Kelen 2+ goals
26%
Kelen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

III. Kerületi TUE (draw refunded)
79%
Kelen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

III. Kerületi TUE at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Kelen away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

III. Kerületi TUE attack 2.13 + Kelen defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.10

Kelen attack 0.85 + III. Kerületi TUE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

III. Kerületi TUE scores more
63%
level
20%
Kelen scores more
17%

III. Kerületi TUE at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "III. Kerületi TUE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: III. Kerületi TUE vs Kelen

III. Kerületi TUE beat Kelen 2-0 in NB III - Northwest on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Hévízi úti Stadion in Budapest.