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Keflavik vs HK Kopavogur — 1. Deild 2026

Keflavik
Keflavikadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur
K. Sigfusson 86'
F. Elvarsson 43'
E. Ragnarsson 18'
S. Ljubicic 14'
9/27/20251. Deild1. Deild · Promotion Play-offs - FinalLaugardalsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Keflavik55%
×Draw20%
HK Kopavogur26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keflavik
2.38
HK Kopavogur
1.60

Keflavik creates 49% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Keflavik
2.75
HK Kopavogur
1.86

allows per match

Keflavik
1.35
HK Kopavogur
2.00

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par
HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

HK Kopavogur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw
74%
Keflavik or HK Kopavogur
80%
Draw or HK Kopavogur
45%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+
34%
HK Kopavogur wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals
91%
Keflavik 2+ goals
68%
Keflavik 3+ goals
42%
HK Kopavogur 1+ goals
80%
HK Kopavogur 2+ goals
47%
HK Kopavogur 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)
68%
HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

HK Kopavogur away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.75 + HK Kopavogur defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

HK Kopavogur attack 1.86 + Keflavik defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Keflavik scores more
55%
level
20%
HK Kopavogur scores more
26%

Keflavik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
F. Elvarsson
14'
S. Ljubicic
18'
E. Ragnarsson
26'
S. Ljubicic← S. Ljubicic
43'
F. Elvarsson
58'
D. Gardarsson← D. Gardarsson
58'
E. Runarsson← E. Runarsson
63'
E. Bjarnason← M. Al Ghoul
67'
H. Jonsson← M. Petursson
67'
T. Thorvarsson← T. Thorvarsson
67'
A. Larusson
82'
D. Axelsson
86'
K. Sigfusson
89'
S. Magnusson← S. Magnusson
89'
G. Gudmundsson← F. Elvarsson
89'
V. Gautason← V. Gautason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Keflavik 4–0 HK Kopavogur

Keflavik beat HK Kopavogur 4-0 in 1. Deild on September 27, 2025.

Goals: S. Ljubicic (14'), E. Ragnarsson (18'), F. Elvarsson (43'), K. Sigfusson (86').

The match was played at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík.