Keflavik 0–3 HK Kopavogur: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

HK Kopavogur

T. Þorvarsson 89'

J. Arnarsson 19', 15' (pen)

5/30/2025

1. Deild · Round 5HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Keflavik55%

×Draw20%

HK Kopavogur26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchHK Kopavogur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.60

Keflavik

2.38

HK Kopavogur

1.60

Keflavik creates 49% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

2.75

creates per match

1.86

1.35

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Keflavik

2.75

HK Kopavogur

1.86

allows per match

Keflavik

1.35

HK Kopavogur

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

HK Kopavogur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

74%

Keflavik or HK Kopavogur

80%

Draw or HK Kopavogur

45%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

34%

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

91%

Keflavik 2+ goals

68%

Keflavik 3+ goals

42%

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

80%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

47%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

68%

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

HK Kopavogur away — creates 1.86, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.75 + HK Kopavogur defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

HK Kopavogur attack 1.86 + Keflavik defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Keflavik scores more

55%

level

20%

HK Kopavogur scores more

26%

Keflavik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

S. Olafsson

15'

J. ArnarssonPenalty

19'

J. Arnarsson

36'

T. Thorvarsson

46'

F. Elvarsson← E. Bjarnason

46'

S. Ljubicic← Gabríel Aron Sævarsson

54'

D. Axelsson

54'

H. Eiríksson← B. Burknason

54'

K. Karlsson← Í. Jónsson

64'

A. Larusson

65'

M. Mudražija← E. Ragnarsson

72'

M. Brigic

72'

K. Frostason← D. Axelsson

77'

A. Olafsson

79'

B. Pálsson← J. Arnarsson

79'

H. Jónsson← A. Lárusson

87'

I. Gissurarson

89'

T. Þorvarsson

90+2'

K. Sigfusson

90+4'

S. Magnusson

90+4'

K. Karlsson

Keflavik

HK

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

46'▲F. Elvarsson←▼E. Bjarnason

46'▲S. Ljubicic←▼Gabríel Aron Sævarsson

65'▲M. Mudražija←▼E. Ragnarsson

Keflavik substitutes

ElvarssonLjubicicMudražijaGuðmundssonGuðmundssonGissurarsonFriðriksson

Manager: H. Hreiðarsson

54'▲H. Eiríksson←▼B. Burknason

54'▲K. Karlsson←▼Í. Jónsson

72'▲K. Frostason←▼D. Axelsson

79'▲B. Pálsson←▼J. Arnarsson

79'▲H. Jónsson←▼A. Lárusson

HK Kopavogur substitutes

EiríkssonKarlssonFrostasonPálssonJónssonÁsgeirssonGunnarsson

1. Deild: Keflavik 0–3 HK Kopavogur

HK Kopavogur beat Keflavik 3-0 in 1. Deild on May 30, 2025.

Goals: J. Arnarsson (15' pen, 19'), T. Þorvarsson (89').

The match was played at HS Orku völlurinn in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.

Keflavik vs HK Kopavogur — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Deild: Keflavik 0–3 HK Kopavogur