HK Kopavogur 3–0 Keflavik: Result & Stats

HK Kopavogur

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Keflavik

B. Kooistra 70'

T. Thorvarsson 24'

K. Karlsson 16'

8/8/2025

1. Deild · Round 16Kórinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

HK Kopavogur49%

×Draw22%

Keflavik29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HK KopavogurExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.52

HK Kopavogur

2.01

Keflavik

1.52

HK Kopavogur creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

2.43

creates per match

1.86

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

HK Kopavogur

2.43

Keflavik

1.86

allows per match

HK Kopavogur

1.19

Keflavik

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HK Kopavogur ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

HK Kopavogur or draw

71%

HK Kopavogur or Keflavik

78%

Draw or Keflavik

51%

Winning margin

HK Kopavogur wins by 2+

28%

Keflavik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

HK Kopavogur 1+ goals

87%

HK Kopavogur 2+ goals

59%

HK Kopavogur 3+ goals

32%

Keflavik 1+ goals

78%

Keflavik 2+ goals

45%

Keflavik 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)

63%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HK Kopavogur at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HK Kopavogur attack 2.43 + Keflavik defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.01

Keflavik attack 1.86 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

HK Kopavogur scores more

49%

level

22%

Keflavik scores more

29%

HK Kopavogur at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. LjubicicMissed penalty

16'

K. Karlsson

24'

T. Thorvarsson

42'

S. Ljubicic

46'

J. Arnarsson← J. Arnarsson

66'

D. Gardarson← D. Gardarson

66'

A. Atlason← A. Atlason

66'

V. Benediktsson← K. Karlsson

69'

S. Ljubicic← S. Ljubicic

69'

F. Elvarsson← F. Elvarsson

70'

B. Kooistra

76'

M. Al Ghoul

77'

E. Ragnarsson← E. Ragnarsson

77'

A. Johannesson← A. Johannesson

79'

D. Axelsson

81'

A. Gunnarsson← K. Gautason

86'

E. Bjarnason← E. Bjarnason

90+2'

B. Palsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff