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Keflavik vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Keflavik
Keflavik
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Grindavik
Grindavik
A. Johannesson 80'
A. Magnusson 65'
K. Sigfusson 45'
M. Al Ghoul 21'
8/13/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 17HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Keflavik59%
×Draw19%
Grindavik22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Keflavik
2.49
Grindavik
1.48

Keflavik creates 68% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Keflavik
2.64
Grindavik
1.59

allows per match

Keflavik
1.36
Grindavik
2.33

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par
Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Grindavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw
78%
Keflavik or Grindavik
81%
Draw or Grindavik
41%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+
38%
Grindavik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals
92%
Keflavik 2+ goals
71%
Keflavik 3+ goals
45%
Grindavik 1+ goals
77%
Grindavik 2+ goals
43%
Grindavik 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)
73%
Grindavik (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.64 + Grindavik defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.49

Grindavik attack 1.59 + Keflavik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Keflavik scores more
59%
level
19%
Grindavik scores more
22%

Keflavik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
F. Elvarsson
21'
M. Al Ghoul
45'
K. Sigfusson
47'
G. Gudmundsson
57'
E. Bjarnason← G. Gudmundsson
57'
F. Elvarsson← F. Elvarsson
65'
A. Magnusson
68'
D. Nieblas← D. Nieblas
68'
A. Robertsson← A. Robertsson
69'
V. Gautason← V. Gautason
69'
S. Ljubicic← M. Al Ghoul
75'
H. Eysteinsson← H. Eysteinsson
75'
M. Gavilan← M. Gavilan
75'
K. Sigfusson← K. Sigfusson
80'
A. Johannesson↳ S. Ljubicic
89'
B. Hermannsson← B. Hermannsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Keflavik 4–0 Grindavik

Keflavik beat Grindavik 4-0 in 1. Deild on August 13, 2025.

Goals: M. Al Ghoul (21'), K. Sigfusson (45'), A. Magnusson (65'), A. Johannesson (80').

The match was played at HS Orku völlurinn in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.