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Grindavik vs Keflavik — 1. Deild 2026

Grindavik
Grindavik
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Keflavik
Keflavik
B. Hermannsson 14'
M. Niemela 88' (OG)
M. Mudrazija 56', 35'
K. Sigfusson 31'
7/7/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 6Stakkavíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grindavik29%
×Draw21%
Keflavik50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.62
Keflavik
2.17

Keflavik creates 34% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.32
Keflavik
2.15

allows per match

Grindavik
2.20
Keflavik
1.92

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

Keflavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
50%
Grindavik or Keflavik
79%
Draw or Keflavik
71%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
14%
Keflavik wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
80%
Grindavik 2+ goals
48%
Grindavik 3+ goals
22%
Keflavik 1+ goals
89%
Keflavik 2+ goals
64%
Keflavik 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
37%
Keflavik (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

Keflavik away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.32 + Keflavik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.62

Keflavik attack 2.15 + Grindavik defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Grindavik scores more
29%
level
21%
Keflavik scores more
50%

Keflavik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
B. Hermannsson
31'
K. Sigfusson
35'
M. Mudrazija
52'
A. Robertsson
56'
M. Mudrazija
69'
F. Elvarsson← A. Gudmundsson
69'
M. Mudrazija← M. Mudrazija
69'
S. Ljubicic← K. Sigfusson
71'
A. Finnbogason← A. Finnbogason
71'
S. Gudmundsson← S. Gudmundsson
74'
M. Al Ghoul
80'
E. Runarsson
83'
B. Hermannsson← B. Hermannsson
83'
A. Robertsson← A. Robertsson
83'
M. Al Ghoul← M. Al Ghoul
85'
S. Ljubicic
88'
M. NiemelaOwn goal
89'
S. Magnusson← S. Magnusson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grindavik vs Keflavik

Keflavik beat Grindavik 4-1 in 1. Deild on July 7, 2025.

Goals: B. Hermannsson (14'), K. Sigfusson (31'), M. Mudrazija (35', 56'), M. Niemela (88' o.g.).

The match was played at Stakkavíkurvöllur in Grindavík.