Keflavik 2–1 Grindavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Keflavik

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Grindavik

K. Sigfússon 53'

O. Kovtun 45'

Ásgeir Orri Magnússon 63' (OG)

8/8/2024

1. Deild · Round 16HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Keflavik58%

×Draw19%

Grindavik22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchGrindavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.47

Keflavik

2.44

Grindavik

1.47

Keflavik creates 66% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

2.64

creates per match

1.58

1.36

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Keflavik

2.64

Grindavik

1.58

allows per match

Keflavik

1.36

Grindavik

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

Grindavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Grindavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

78%

Keflavik or Grindavik

81%

Draw or Grindavik

42%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

37%

Grindavik wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

91%

Keflavik 2+ goals

70%

Keflavik 3+ goals

43%

Grindavik 1+ goals

77%

Grindavik 2+ goals

43%

Grindavik 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

72%

Grindavik (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Grindavik away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.64 + Grindavik defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.44

Grindavik attack 1.58 + Keflavik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Keflavik scores more

58%

level

19%

Grindavik scores more

22%

Keflavik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

O. Kovtun

46'

M. Helgason← M. Turkuš

48'

A. Orrason

53'

K. Sigfússon

59'

K. Quee← A. Róbertsson

63'

Ásgeir Orri MagnússonOwn goal

67'

A. Guðmundsson← K. Sigfússon

73'

C. Alexandersson← Nuno Malheiro

74'

D. Valsson

83'

M. Diaw← D. Valsson

85'

E. Vales

90+2'

V. Hákonarson← M. Mladen

Keflavik

Grindavik

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Sigfússon

▼

Mladen

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

67'▲A. Guðmundsson←▼K. Sigfússon

83'▲M. Diaw←▼D. Valsson

90+2'▲V. Hákonarson←▼M. Mladen

Keflavik substitutes

GuðmundssonDiawHákonarsonSævarssonEysteinssonGissurarsonFriðriksson

Manager: B. Gunnarsson

46'▲M. Helgason←▼M. Turkuš

59'▲K. Quee←▼A. Róbertsson

73'▲C. Alexandersson←▼Nuno Malheiro

Grindavik substitutes

HelgasonQueeAlexanderssonJúlíussonHávarðarsonÓlafssonÁsgeirsson

1. Deild: Keflavik 2–1 Grindavik

Keflavik beat Grindavik 2-1 in 1. Deild on August 8, 2024.

Goals: O. Kovtun (45'), K. Sigfússon (53'), Ásgeir Orri Magnússon (63' o.g.).

The match was played at HS Orku völlurinn in Keflavík, Reykjanesbær.

Keflavik vs Grindavik — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Deild: Keflavik 2–1 Grindavik