Keflavik 5–4 Fjolnir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Keflavik

FT

5 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Fjolnir

S. Fridriksson 89'

E. Ragnarsson 84'

E. Osmani 82'

M. Mudrazija 28', 14'

F. Elvarsson 78' (OG)

B. T. Hafstein 33'

K. Arnarsson 25'

A. Sigursteinsson 1'

7/18/2025

1. Deild · Round 13HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Keflavik52%

×Draw21%

Fjolnir27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.58

Keflavik

2.22

Fjolnir

1.58

Keflavik creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

2.73

creates per match

1.90

1.27

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Keflavik

2.73

Fjolnir

1.90

allows per match

Keflavik

1.27

Fjolnir

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

73%

Keflavik or Fjolnir

79%

Draw or Fjolnir

48%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

31%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

89%

Keflavik 2+ goals

65%

Keflavik 3+ goals

38%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

79%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

47%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

65%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.73 + Fjolnir defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.22

Fjolnir attack 1.90 + Keflavik defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Keflavik scores more

52%

level

21%

Fjolnir scores more

27%

Keflavik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

A. Sigursteinsson

14'

M. Mudrazija

25'

K. Arnarsson

28'

M. Mudrazija

33'

B. T. Hafstein

59'

S. Sigmarsson← S. Sigmarsson

59'

R. Haraldsson← R. Haraldsson

68'

K. Sigfusson← K. Sigfusson

70'

E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson

70'

S. Hardarson← S. Hardarson

78'

F. ElvarssonOwn goal

79'

B. T. Hafstein← B. T. Hafstein

81'

S. Magnusson← S. Magnusson

81'

A. Johannesson← A. Johannesson

82'

E. Osmani

84'

E. Ragnarsson

89'

S. Fridriksson↳ S. Ljubicic

90+7'

E. Ragnarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff