Fjolnir 1–3 Keflavik: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fjolnir

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Keflavik

B. Guðjónsson 30'

M. Alghoul 67'

Nacho Heras 52'

Gabríel Aron Sævarsson 41'

5/2/2025

1. Deild · Round 1Egilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fjolnir32%

×Draw21%

Keflavik47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.20

Fjolnir

1.81

Keflavik

2.20

Keflavik creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

2.15

2.24

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.71

Keflavik

2.15

allows per match

Fjolnir

2.24

Keflavik

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

53%

Fjolnir or Keflavik

79%

Draw or Keflavik

68%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

16%

Keflavik wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

84%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

54%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

27%

Keflavik 1+ goals

89%

Keflavik 2+ goals

64%

Keflavik 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

41%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Keflavik away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.71 + Keflavik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.81

Keflavik attack 2.15 + Fjolnir defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fjolnir scores more

32%

level

21%

Keflavik scores more

47%

Keflavik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

B. Guðjónsson

41'

Gabríel Aron Sævarsson

52'

Nacho Heras

53'

M. Hilmarsson← B. Hafstein

64'

G. Saevarsson

65'

S. Sigmarsson← M. Jörgensson

67'

M. Alghoul

69'

M. Mudražija← Gabríel Aron Sævarsson

69'

S. Friðriksson← Ásgeir Páll Magnússon

78'

A. Ívarsson← Á. Árnason

83'

A. Guðmundsson← E. Ragnarsson

83'

F. Elvarsson← E. Bjarnason

83'

V. Hákonarson← K. Sigfússon

Fjolnir

Keflavik

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

53'▲M. Hilmarsson←▼B. Hafstein

65'▲S. Sigmarsson←▼M. Jörgensson

78'▲A. Ívarsson←▼Á. Árnason

Fjolnir substitutes

HilmarssonSigmarssonÍvarssonSigurjónssonJónssonStefánssonJóhannsson

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

69'▲M. Mudražija←▼Gabríel Aron Sævarsson

69'▲S. Friðriksson←▼Ásgeir Páll Magnússon

83'▲A. Guðmundsson←▼E. Ragnarsson

83'▲F. Elvarsson←▼E. Bjarnason

83'▲V. Hákonarson←▼K. Sigfússon

Keflavik substitutes

MudražijaFriðrikssonGuðmundssonElvarssonHákonarsonGuðmundssonGissurarson