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Fjolnir vs Keflavik — League #168 2026

Fjolnir
Fjolnir
FT
4 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Keflavik
Keflavik
D. Ingvarsson 90+3'
A. Sigursteinsson 87'
J. Juliusson 76'
B. Gunnarsson 3'
S. Kamel 65'
J. T. Arnarsson 54'
G. Gudmundsson 49'
S. Gudmundsson 44'
J. Smylie 19' (pen)
3/3/2023League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 4Fjölnisvöllur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fjolnir37%
×Draw18%
Keflavik44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjolnir
2.50
Keflavik
2.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fjolnir
3.00
Keflavik
2.80

allows per match

Fjolnir
2.67
Keflavik
2.00

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par
Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Keflavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw
56%
Fjolnir or Keflavik
82%
Draw or Keflavik
63%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+
21%
Keflavik wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals
92%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
71%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
45%
Keflavik 1+ goals
93%
Keflavik 2+ goals
75%
Keflavik 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)
46%
Keflavik (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Keflavik away — creates 2.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 3.00 + Keflavik defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Keflavik attack 2.80 + Fjolnir defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fjolnir scores more
37%
level
18%
Keflavik scores more
44%

Keflavik at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
B. Gunnarsson
15'
A. Sigursteinsson← A. Sigursteinsson
16'
B. Gunnarsson← G. Gudmundsson
19'
J. SmyliePenalty
44'
S. Gudmundsson
46'
M. Rosenorn← R. Gissurarson
48'
V. Hjalmarsson
49'
G. Gudmundsson
54'
J. T. Arnarsson
56'
D. Gylfason← D. Gylfason
56'
G. Gudmundsson← G. P. Stefansson
65'
S. Kamel
66'
D. Axelsson← D. Axelsson
76'
J. Juliusson
77'
H. Jonsson← B. T. Hafstein
77'
J. Smylie← S. Orri Ingimarsson
77'
S. Kamel← V. Hakonarson
82'
D. Ingvarsson← D. Ingvarsson
82'
D. Snorrason← A. Gudjohnsen
84'
A. Johannesson
87'
A. Sigursteinsson
90+3'
D. Ingvarsson
90+3'
V. Hakonarson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjolnir vs Keflavik

Keflavik beat Fjolnir 5-4 in League #168 on March 3, 2023.

Goals: B. Gunnarsson (3'), J. Smylie (19' pen), S. Gudmundsson (44'), G. Gudmundsson (49'), J. T. Arnarsson (54'), S. Kamel (65'), J. Juliusson (76'), A. Sigursteinsson (87'), D. Ingvarsson (90+3').

The match was played at Fjölnisvöllur Gervigras in Reykjavík.