Kayserispor 3–1 Antalyaspor: Result & Stats

Kayserispor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Antalyaspor

Miguel Cardoso 63' (pen), 29', 12'

Thalisson Kelven 26'

5/12/2025

League #203 · Round 35RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kayserispor35%

×Draw26%

Antalyaspor39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayserisporExpected goals in this matchAntalyaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.38

Kayserispor

1.28

Antalyaspor

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.43

creates per match

0.75

2.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Kayserispor

1.43

Antalyaspor

0.75

allows per match

Kayserispor

2.00

Antalyaspor

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Antalyaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw

61%

Kayserispor or Antalyaspor

74%

Draw or Antalyaspor

65%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+

15%

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals

72%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

37%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

14%

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

75%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

40%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

47%

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Antalyaspor away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 1.43 + Antalyaspor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Antalyaspor attack 0.75 + Kayserispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kayserispor scores more

35%

level

26%

Antalyaspor scores more

39%

Antalyaspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Miguel Cardoso

Kayserispor · M

10.0

Match Events

11'

S. Dikmen← S. van de Streek

12'

Miguel Cardoso↳ K. Yılmaz

26'

Thalisson Kelven↳ J. Kałuziński

29'

Miguel Cardoso↳ R. Civelek

31'

41'

55'

63'

63'

M. Djenepo← B. Öztürk

63'

Miguel CardosoPenalty

64'

A. Gaich← B. Samudio

73'

B. Gezek← A. Karimi

73'

Carlos Mané← R. Civelek

76'

Gökhan Sazdağı

80'

A. Gërxhaliu← Thalisson Kelven

84'

T. Sarıarslan← D. Nazon

84'

E. Özbek← M. Bourabia

90+1'

N. Korkmaz← Miguel Cardoso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KayserisporAntalyaspor

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots6

1.91Expected Goals (xG)0.25

6Corners1

11Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots6

6On Target2

3Off Target4

3Blocked0

9Inside Box2

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

426Total Passes438

375Accurate Passes374

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.99Goals Prevented-0.99

Discipline

11Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1