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Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor — League #203 2026

Kayserispor
Kayserispor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Antalyaspor
Antalyaspor
A. Karimi 61'
S. Larsson 31'
1/29/2024League #203League #203 · Round 23RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kayserispor31%
×Draw27%
Antalyaspor42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kayserispor
1.15
Antalyaspor
1.38

Antalyaspor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kayserispor
1.17
Antalyaspor
0.75

allows per match

Kayserispor
2.00
Antalyaspor
1.13

finishing

Kayserispor+0.00on par
Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kayserispor ↓

Antalyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kayserispor or draw
58%
Kayserispor or Antalyaspor
73%
Draw or Antalyaspor
69%

Winning margin

Kayserispor wins by 2+
13%
Antalyaspor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kayserispor 1+ goals
68%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
32%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
11%
Antalyaspor 1+ goals
75%
Antalyaspor 2+ goals
40%
Antalyaspor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kayserispor (draw refunded)
43%
Antalyaspor (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kayserispor at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Antalyaspor away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kayserispor attack 1.17 + Antalyaspor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Antalyaspor attack 0.75 + Kayserispor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kayserispor scores more
31%
level
27%
Antalyaspor scores more
42%

Antalyaspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Miguel CardosoKayserisporKayserispor · M
8.3

Match Events

31'
S. Larsson↳ R. Safouri
43'
Mehmet Eray Özbek
61'
A. Karimi↳ Miguel Cardoso
72'
Y. Ackah← E. Özbek
77'
E. Rakip← D. Šarić
80'
Yaw Ackah
86'
S. van de Streek← R. Safouri
88'
T. Sarıarslan← G. Sazdağı
90+3'
Bahadır Öztürk

Possession

49%Kayserispor

Shots

15Kayserispor

Pass accuracy

50%Kayserispor

Statistics

KayserisporAntalyaspor
Overview
49%Possession51%
15Total Shots13
1.48Expected Goals (xG)1.82
6Corners7
13Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots13
5On Target3
9Off Target3
1Blocked7
12Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
386Total Passes398
283Accurate Passes291
73%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor

Kayserispor and Antalyaspor drew 1-1 in League #203 on January 29, 2024.

Goals: S. Larsson (31'), A. Karimi (61').

Antalyaspor controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 15.

The match was played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Kayseri.