Antalyaspor 1–1 Kayserispor: Result & Stats

Antalyaspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kayserispor

G. Dzhikiya 52'

L. Benes 90'

9/20/2025

League #203 · Round 6Corendon Airlines Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Antalyaspor51%

×Draw24%

Kayserispor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntalyasporExpected goals in this matchKayserispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.11

Antalyaspor

1.69

Kayserispor

1.11

Antalyaspor creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.22

creates per match

1.00

1.22

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Antalyaspor

1.22

Kayserispor

1.00

allows per match

Antalyaspor

1.22

Kayserispor

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antalyaspor+0.00on par

Kayserispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antalyaspor ↓

Kayserispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Antalyaspor or draw

75%

Antalyaspor or Kayserispor

76%

Draw or Kayserispor

49%

Winning margin

Antalyaspor wins by 2+

27%

Kayserispor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Antalyaspor 1+ goals

82%

Antalyaspor 2+ goals

50%

Antalyaspor 3+ goals

24%

Kayserispor 1+ goals

67%

Kayserispor 2+ goals

30%

Kayserispor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Antalyaspor (draw refunded)

67%

Kayserispor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antalyaspor at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antalyaspor attack 1.22 + Kayserispor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kayserispor attack 1.00 + Antalyaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Antalyaspor scores more

51%

level

24%

Kayserispor scores more

25%

Antalyaspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Antalyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

G. Dzhikiya

Antalyaspor · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

46'

48'

50'

52'

G. Dzhikiya↳ R. Safuri

53'

Ramzi Safuri

56'

Ramazan Civelek

60'

Y. Boli← A. Omur

67'

67'

71'

71'

71'

78'

79'

90'

S. Karakoc← S. van de Streek

90'

T. Cvancara← R. Safuri

90'

L. Benes↳ N. Korkmaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AntalyasporKayserispor

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots14

0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.84

10Corners4

12Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots14

6On Target4

4Off Target7

3Blocked3

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

402Total Passes356

334Accurate Passes283

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.44Goals Prevented-0.44

Discipline

12Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1