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Kawkab Marrakech vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola Pro 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
1 – 1
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
3/9/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 21Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech58%
×Draw25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.63
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.77

Kawkab Marrakech creates 112% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.32
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.53

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.00
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.93

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
82%
Kawkab Marrakech or Chabab RIF Hoceima
75%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
42%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
32%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
80%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
48%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
22%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
54%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
18%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
77%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.32 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.53 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
58%
level
25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
18%

Kawkab Marrakech at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Kawkab Marrakech 1–1 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Kawkab Marrakech and Chabab RIF Hoceima drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech).