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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
1 – 0
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
10/27/2018Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 6Stade de football d'Imzouren (Imzouren)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima41%
×Draw28%
Kawkab Marrakech32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.29
Kawkab Marrakech
1.10

Chabab RIF Hoceima creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.27
Kawkab Marrakech
0.73

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47
Kawkab Marrakech
1.30

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
68%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Kawkab Marrakech
72%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
59%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
18%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
72%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
37%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
14%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
67%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
30%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
56%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.27 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.73 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
41%
level
28%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
32%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1 – 0 Kawkab Marrakech

Chabab RIF Hoceima beat Kawkab Marrakech 1-0 in Botola Pro on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de football d'Imzouren (Imzouren).