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Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
1 – 1
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
10/5/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 4Stade Mimoun Al Arsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima37%
×Draw30%
Kawkab Marrakech33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.06
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.13
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.20
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
67%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Kawkab Marrakech
70%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
63%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
14%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
65%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
29%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
9%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
63%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
26%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
53%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.13 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
37%
level
30%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
33%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Kawkab Marrakech

Chabab RIF Hoceima and Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi in Al Hoceima.