Kawasaki Frontale 2–3 Albirex Niigata

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Albirex Niigata

S. Yamada 76' (pen)

João Schmidt 23'

S. Ota 80'

N. Arai 59'

K. Suzuki 30'

9/29/2023

J1 League · Round 29Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale42%

×Draw25%

Albirex Niigata33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.32

Kawasaki Frontale

1.53

Albirex Niigata

1.32

Kawasaki Frontale creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.69

creates per match

1.20

1.44

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.69

Albirex Niigata

1.20

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.44

Albirex Niigata

1.38

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.31scores more

Albirex Niigata-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

67%

Kawasaki Frontale or Albirex Niigata

75%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

58%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

21%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

78%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

45%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

20%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

73%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

38%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

56%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.69 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Albirex Niigata attack 1.20 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

42%

level

25%

Albirex Niigata scores more

33%

Kawasaki Frontale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Yamada

Kawasaki Frontale · F

7.5

Match Events

23'

João Schmidt

30'

K. Suzuki

46'

S. Yamada← B. Gomis

46'

Y. Segawa← Y. Kobayashi

55'

Y. Hoshi← H. Akiyama

59'

N. Arai

65'

M. Nagakura← K. Suzuki

65'

T. Watanabe← K. Chiba

66'

Leandro Damião← Marcinho

66'

K. Tachibanada← Y. Wakizaka

73'

E. Matsuda← T. Hasegawa

73'

S. Ota← Y. Takagi

76'

S. YamadaPenalty

79'

T. Seko← D. Tono

80'

S. Ota↳ Y. Hoshi

87'

Kazuya Yamamura

90+7'

Kyohei Noborizato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiAlbirex

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots21

1.84Expected Goals (xG)2.84

3Corners7

17Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots21

3On Target9

2Off Target7

1Blocked5

4Inside Box15

2Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

354Total Passes648

283Accurate Passes587

80%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1