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Albirex Niigata vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
K. Suzuki 90+7'
S. Fujiwara 61'
1 S. Yamada 90+11'
Marcinho 17'
6/22/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 19Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Albirex Niigata34%
×Draw26%
Kawasaki Frontale40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.29
Kawasaki Frontale
1.42

Kawasaki Frontale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.26
Kawasaki Frontale
1.47

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.36
Kawasaki Frontale
1.33

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.19scores less
Kawasaki Frontale+0.18scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
60%
Albirex Niigata or Kawasaki Frontale
74%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
66%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
15%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
72%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
37%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
14%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
76%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
41%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
46%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.26 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.47 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
34%
level
26%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
40%

Kawasaki Frontale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
D. TonoKawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale · M
8.5

Match Events

17'
Marcinho↳ A. Sasaki
61'
S. Fujiwara
66'
S. Yamada← Y. Kobayashi
70'
Michael James Fitzgerald
72'
E. Matsuda← Y. Komi
72'
M. Hasegawa← Y. Shimada
79'
T. Miyagi← Marcinho
80'
Patrick Verhon← A. Ienaga
87'
Zé Ricardo← Y. Yamamoto
87'
S. Tanabe← Y. Segawa
88'
Tatsuki Seko
90+9'
F. Hayakawa← Y. Horigome
90+7'
K. Suzuki↳ M. Fitzgerald
90+11'
1 S. Yamada↳ T. Miyagi

Possession

59%Albirex

Shots

13Albirex

Pass accuracy

52%Albirex

Statistics

AlbirexKawasaki
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots20
5Corners7
9Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots20
5On Target8
5Off Target10
3Blocked2
7Inside Box11
6Outside Box9
Passing
59%Possession41%
653Total Passes434
575Accurate Passes357
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

J1 League: Albirex Niigata 2–2 Kawasaki Frontale

Albirex Niigata and Kawasaki Frontale drew 2-2 in J1 League on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Marcinho (17'), S. Fujiwara (61'), K. Suzuki (90+7'), 1 S. Yamada (90+11').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 20.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.