Albirex Niigata 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale

Albirex Niigata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kawasaki Frontale

E. Shirai 7'

T. Ito 45'

8/16/2025

J1 League · Round 26Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Albirex Niigata34%

×Draw26%

Kawasaki Frontale40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.42

Albirex Niigata

1.29

Kawasaki Frontale

1.42

Kawasaki Frontale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

1.26

creates per match

1.47

1.36

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.26

Kawasaki Frontale

1.47

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.36

Kawasaki Frontale

1.33

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.19scores less

Kawasaki Frontale+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

60%

Albirex Niigata or Kawasaki Frontale

74%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

66%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

15%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

72%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

37%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

14%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

76%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

41%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

46%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 30 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.26 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.47 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

34%

level

26%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

40%

Kawasaki Frontale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

K. Hashimoto

Albirex Niigata · D

7.9

Match Events

7'

E. Shirai↳ Moraes

45+4'

45'

55'

57'

63'

71'

72'

K. Taniguchi← M. Ohara

77'

S. Kawahara← K. Tachibanada

83'

K. Yamura← M. Hasegawa

85'

Yuki Yamamoto

87'

H. Noda← T. Ito

87'

S. Kanda← Erison

90+4'

Soya Fujiwara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexKawasaki

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots12

1.42Expected Goals (xG)1.11

4Corners6

8Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots12

4On Target2

5Off Target8

6Blocked2

7Inside Box9

8Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

406Total Passes398

323Accurate Passes326

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2