Kaspiy 3–1 Akademiya Ontustik: Result & Stats

Kaspiy

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akademiya Ontustik

E. Nurgaliyev 73'

B. Baytana 63'

Z. Kozhamberdy 47'

S. Alkaydarov 86'

4/24/2025

1. Division · Round 3Zhestar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kaspiy65%

×Draw19%

Akademiya Ontustik16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaspiyExpected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.09

Kaspiy

2.34

Akademiya Ontustik

1.09

Kaspiy creates 115% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 76 away

2.73

creates per match

1.24

0.95

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Kaspiy

2.73

Akademiya Ontustik

1.24

allows per match

Kaspiy

0.95

Akademiya Ontustik

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw

84%

Kaspiy or Akademiya Ontustik

81%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

35%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+

42%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals

90%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

67%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

41%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

66%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

30%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

80%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 2.73 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.34

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + Kaspiy defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kaspiy scores more

65%

level

19%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

16%

Kaspiy at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

V. Afanasenko

26'

E. Zhumabay← N. Abdulla

29'

E. Zhumabay

34'

Z. Kozhamberdy

47'

Z. Erzhigit← N. Sagyndyk

47'

Z. Kozhamberdy

51'

E. Zhumabay

62'

D. Donbay← A. Tolepbergen

62'

S. Alkaydarov← A. Mynbay

62'

B. Amangeldy← Z. Porokh

63'

B. Baytana↳ S. Shamshi

65'

B. Kabylan

67'

M. Serikbay← B. Kabylan

67'

E. Nurgaliyev← Z. Kozhamberdy

72'

E. Smaylov

73'

E. Nurgaliyev

74'

N. Turdybaev← A. Kazhigaliev

77'

A. Armenov← M. Turlybek

77'

E. Kadyrbaev← S. Shamshi

85'

M. Toktybay

86'

S. Alkaydarov↳ N. Serik

Kaspiy

Akademiya

1

Smaylov

23

▼

Kazhigali

4

Turganov

7

Afanasenk

24

▼

Porokh

28

Nyshantay

50

▼

Mynbay

55

A

Serik

64

▼

Tolepberg

65

▼

79

20

5

7

▼

Kabylan

10

⚽

Baytana

14

Serikbay

17

A

▼

Shamshi

21

Aripov

23

⚽

▼

Kozhamber

70

▼

Abdulla

71

▼

Turlybek

91

Aytbaev

Manager: R. Esatov

26'▲E. Zhumabay←▼N. Abdulla

67'▲M. Serikbay←▼B. Kabylan

67'▲E. Nurgaliyev←▼Z. Kozhamberdy

77'▲A. Armenov←▼M. Turlybek

77'▲E. Kadyrbaev←▼S. Shamshi

Kaspiy substitutes

97Blokhin48Zhumabay24Semchenkov18Kulakhmetov13Serikbay12Mukhanov11Nurgaliyev9Armenov8Buribaev6Shakhmetov4Kadyrbaev1Ayazbaev

Manager: F. Urdabaev

47'▲Z. Erzhigit←▼N. Sagyndyk

62'▲D. Donbay←▼A. Tolepbergen

62'▲S. Alkaydarov←▼A. Mynbay

62'▲B. Amangeldy←▼Z. Porokh

74'▲N. Turdybaev←▼A. Kazhigaliev

Akademiya Ontustik substitutes

77Shanshar58Donbay35Turdybaev30Alkaydarov29Askar21Amangeldy20Erzhigit10Ali9Ermek