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Kaspiy vs Akademiya Ontustik — Cup 2019

Kaspiy
Kaspiy
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
S. Shamshi 80'
B. Kabylan 64' (pen)
A. Temirbek 72'
B. Toktybay 6'
3/16/2025CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundSportivnyy Kompleks Kaznu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kaspiy37%
×Draw24%
Akademiya Ontustik39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaspiy
1.52
Akademiya Ontustik
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kaspiy
1.60
Akademiya Ontustik
1.71

allows per match

Kaspiy
1.40
Akademiya Ontustik
1.43

finishing

Kaspiy+0.00on par
Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaspiy ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kaspiy or draw
61%
Kaspiy or Akademiya Ontustik
76%
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
63%

Winning margin

Kaspiy wins by 2+
18%
Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kaspiy 1+ goals
78%
Kaspiy 2+ goals
45%
Kaspiy 3+ goals
20%
Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
79%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
46%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kaspiy (draw refunded)
49%
Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaspiy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaspiy attack 1.60 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.71 + Kaspiy defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kaspiy scores more
37%
level
24%
Akademiya Ontustik scores more
39%

Akademiya Ontustik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Akademiya Ontustik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
B. Toktybay
64'
B. KabylanPenalty
68'
M. Toktybay
72'
A. Temirbek
80'
S. Shamshi
Kaspiy
Akademiya
R. Esatov
Manager: R. Esatov
F. Urdabaev
Manager: F. Urdabaev

Match Recap: Kaspiy vs Akademiya Ontustik

Kaspiy and Akademiya Ontustik drew 2-2 in Cup on March 16, 2025.

Goals: B. Toktybay (6'), B. Kabylan (64' pen), A. Temirbek (72'), S. Shamshi (80').

The match was played at Sportivnyy Kompleks Kaznu in Almaty.