Akademiya Ontustik 1–6 Kaspiy: Result & Stats

Akademiya Ontustik

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Kaspiy

M. Toktybay 51'

Z. Kozhamberdy 87'

E. Oralbay 81'

M. Turlybek 66', 53', 1'

B. Konlimkos 45'

7/24/2025

1. Division · Round 15Namys Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik27%

×Draw22%

Kaspiy51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Akademiya OntustikExpected goals in this matchKaspiy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.92

Akademiya Ontustik

1.34

Kaspiy

1.92

Kaspiy creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 41 away

1.73

creates per match

1.93

1.91

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.73

Kaspiy

1.93

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik

1.91

Kaspiy

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Kaspiy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

Kaspiy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw

49%

Akademiya Ontustik or Kaspiy

78%

Draw or Kaspiy

73%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

11%

Kaspiy wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

74%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

39%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

15%

Kaspiy 1+ goals

85%

Kaspiy 2+ goals

57%

Kaspiy 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

35%

Kaspiy (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

Kaspiy away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.95 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + Kaspiy defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.34

Kaspiy attack 1.93 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

27%

level

22%

Kaspiy scores more

51%

Kaspiy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kaspiy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

M. Turlybek↳ T. Kurbanov

33'

34'

37'

45+2'

45'

B. Konlimkos↳ T. Kurbanov

46'

B. Amangeldy← M. Temirali

46'

B. Niyazkulov← S. Alkaydarov

51'

M. Toktybay↳ B. Toktybay

53'

M. Turlybek

62'

Z. Babanazarov← D. Nyshantay

66'

M. Turlybek↳ B. Konlimkos

68'

B. Kabylan← B. Baytana

69'

E. Oralbay← M. Turlybek

69'

Z. Kozhamberdy← B. Konlimkos

71'

A. Kazhigaliev← N. Serik

75'

A. Kazhigaliev

78'

A. Tolepbergen← M. Toktybay

80'

Z. Babanazarov

80'

N. Abdulla← T. Kurbanov

81'

E. Oralbay↳ B. Kabylan

83'

R. Aslan← E. Kadyrbaev

87'

Z. Kozhamberdy↳ B. Kabylan

90+3'

Z. Babanazarov

90+4'

E. Oralbay

Akademiya

Kaspiy

20

Pasechenk

4

▼

Kadyrbaev

5

Taipov

8

Raskatov

10

▼

13

14

19

22

A

▼

Kurbanov

47

⚽A

▼

Konlimkos

71

⚽3

▼

77

29

4

28

▼

Nyshantay

30

▼

Alkaydaro

41

Amantayev

48

A

Toktybay

55

▼

Serik

65

Sagyndyk

79

⚽

▼

Toktybay

89

▼

Temirali

Manager: F. Urdabaev

46'▲B. Amangeldy←▼M. Temirali

46'▲B. Niyazkulov←▼S. Alkaydarov

62'▲Z. Babanazarov←▼D. Nyshantay

71'▲A. Kazhigaliev←▼N. Serik

78'▲A. Tolepbergen←▼M. Toktybay

Akademiya Ontustik substitutes

64Tolepbergen58Donbay21Amangeldy20Erzhigit17Babanazarov8Abdimazhit7Niyazkulov1Smaylov23Kazhigaliev

Manager: R. Esatov

68'▲B. Kabylan←▼B. Baytana

69'▲E. Oralbay←▼M. Turlybek

69'▲Z. Kozhamberdy←▼B. Konlimkos

80'▲N. Abdulla←▼T. Kurbanov

83'▲R. Aslan←▼E. Kadyrbaev

Kaspiy substitutes

70Abdulla48Zhumabay28Oralbay23Kozhamberdy21Aripov7Kabylan6Shakhmetov2Aslan1Ayazbaev

1. Division: Akademiya Ontustik 1–6 Kaspiy

Kaspiy beat Akademiya Ontustik 6-1 in 1. Division on July 24, 2025.

Goals: M. Turlybek (1', 53', 66'), B. Konlimkos (45'), M. Toktybay (51'), E. Oralbay (81'), Z. Kozhamberdy (87').

The match was played at Namys Stadium in Şımkent (Shymkent).

Akademiya Ontustik vs Kaspiy — 1. Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Akademiya Ontustik 1–6 Kaspiy