Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
T. Kubo 73'
7/5/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 23Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol35%
×Draw26%
FC Tokyo39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.29
FC Tokyo
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.11
FC Tokyo
1.45

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.28
FC Tokyo
1.48

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.07on par
FC Tokyo-0.17scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
61%
Kashiwa Reysol or FC Tokyo
74%
Draw or FC Tokyo
65%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
15%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
72%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
37%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
14%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
74%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
39%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
48%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 17 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.11 + FC Tokyo defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Tokyo attack 1.45 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
35%
level
26%
FC Tokyo scores more
39%

FC Tokyo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
R. KojimaKashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol · G
8.3

Match Events

45+2'
Teruhito Nakagawa
54'
Yuto Yamada
59'
K. Sato← L. Nozawa
59'
Marcelo Ryan← T. Nakagawa
67'
Y. Komi← M. Watai
71'
K. Tawaratsumida← K. Endo
73'
T. Kubo↳ T. Koyamatsu
81'
Y. Nagatomo← S. Muroya
81'
K. Koizumi← T. Ko
86'
Diego← T. Koyamatsu
86'
M. Hosoya← Y. Kakita
88'
Diego
89'
H. Nakama← Y. Koizumi

Possession

59%Kashiwa

Shots

14Kashiwa

Pass accuracy

52%Kashiwa

Statistics

KashiwaFC
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots14
0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.55
4Corners7
8Fouls6
Shots
14Total Shots14
2On Target5
7Off Target4
5Blocked5
8Inside Box11
6Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
556Total Passes382
470Accurate Passes303
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

J1 League: Kashiwa Reysol 1–0 FC Tokyo

Kashiwa Reysol beat FC Tokyo 1-0 in J1 League on July 5, 2025.

Goals: T. Kubo (73').

Kashiwa Reysol controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium in Kashiwa.