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FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
Y. Segawa 82'
Y. Kakita 54'
2/28/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 4Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Tokyo44%
×Draw24%
Kashiwa Reysol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.61
Kashiwa Reysol
1.35

FC Tokyo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.84
Kashiwa Reysol
1.46

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.25
Kashiwa Reysol
1.38

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.57scores less
Kashiwa Reysol-0.17scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
68%
FC Tokyo or Kashiwa Reysol
76%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
56%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
22%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
80%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
48%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
22%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
74%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
39%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
58%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.25 · 15 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.38 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.84 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.46 + FC Tokyo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
44%
level
24%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
32%

FC Tokyo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
R. KojimaKashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol · G
7.9

Match Events

33'
Kento Hashimoto
54'
Y. Kakita↳ Y. Komi
63'
K. Endo← Marcelo Ryan
63'
K. Hashimoto← Y. Nagatomo
65'
Hinata Yamauchi
67'
Y. Segawa← H. Yamauchi
67'
M. Hosoya← Y. Kakita
67'
Y. Yamanouchi← Y. Komi
71'
Ryunosuke Sato
75'
K. Koizumi← K. Tokiwa
75'
F. Yamada← R. Sato
81'
T. Nakagawa← K. Sato
82'
Y. Segawa
83'
S. Toshima← Y. Konishi
85'
T. Inukai← S. Baba
88'
Yoshio Koizumi

Possession

50%FC

Shots

14FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCKashiwa
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots10
2.36Expected Goals (xG)1.02
3Corners5
7Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots10
4On Target6
8Off Target1
2Blocked3
12Inside Box8
2Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
491Total Passes493
395Accurate Passes419
80%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol

Kashiwa Reysol beat FC Tokyo 2-0 in J1 League on February 28, 2026.

Goals: Y. Kakita (54'), Y. Segawa (82').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.