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FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
T. Nakagawa 35'
K. Kinoshita 90'
4/11/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 10New National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Tokyo44%
×Draw24%
Kashiwa Reysol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.62
Kashiwa Reysol
1.36

FC Tokyo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.84
Kashiwa Reysol
1.46

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.26
Kashiwa Reysol
1.40

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.59scores less
Kashiwa Reysol-0.18scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
68%
FC Tokyo or Kashiwa Reysol
76%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
56%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
22%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
80%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
48%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
22%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
74%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
39%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
58%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 16 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.40 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.84 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.46 + FC Tokyo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
44%
level
24%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
32%

FC Tokyo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
K. KumasakaKashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol · M
7.7

Match Events

35'
T. Nakagawa
58'
K. Kinoshita← Y. Kakita
60'
Yuto Yamada
60'
Marcelo Ryan← K. Tawaratsumida
68'
Diego← T. Koyamatsu
68'
H. Nakama← M. Watai
70'
K. Koizumi← K. Hashimoto
70'
K. Endo← T. Nakagawa
76'
S. Nakajima← T. Kubo
76'
M. Hosoya← Y. Yamada
78'
Y. Kimoto← K. Doi
78'
Y. Nagatomo← K. Sato
80'
Yoshio Koizumi
82'
Wataru Harada
90+1'
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
90'
K. Kinoshita

Possession

31%FC

Shots

10FC

Pass accuracy

46%FC

Statistics

FCKashiwa
Overview
31%Possession69%
10Total Shots10
1.79Expected Goals (xG)1.46
3Corners8
8Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots10
4On Target3
5Off Target4
1Blocked3
5Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
31%Possession69%
316Total Passes718
243Accurate Passes642
77%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides5

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol

FC Tokyo and Kashiwa Reysol drew 1-1 in J1 League on April 11, 2025.

Goals: T. Nakagawa (35'), K. Kinoshita (90').

Kashiwa Reysol controlled possession (69%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at New National Stadium in Tokyo.