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Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
H. Hajradinović 85' (pen)
J. Brekalo 61'
M. Ben Ouanes 52'
V. Osimhen 71', 12' (pen)
M. Lemina 69'
3/2/2025League #203League #203 · Round 26Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kasımpaşa33%
×Draw22%
Galatasaray44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
1.57
Galatasaray
1.85

Galatasaray creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.20
Galatasaray
1.90

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.80
Galatasaray
0.93

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
56%
Kasımpaşa or Galatasaray
78%
Draw or Galatasaray
67%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
16%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
79%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
46%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
21%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
84%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
55%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
43%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.20 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Galatasaray attack 1.90 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
33%
level
22%
Galatasaray scores more
44%

Galatasaray at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
V. OsimhenGalatasarayGalatasaray · F
8.7

Match Events

2'
Yasin Özcan
6'
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
10'
Victor OsimhenPenalty confirmed
12'
V. OsimhenPenalty
46'
K. Rodrigues← Y. Özcan
52'
M. Ben Ouanes↳ K. Piątkowski
55'
Josip Brekalo
61'
J. Brekalo↳ G. Gül
65'
Mario Lemina
65'
A. Kutucu← R. Sallai
69'
M. Lemina↳ D. Sánchez
71'
V. Osimhen
77'
C. Keleş← J. Brekalo
80'
C. Cuesta← E. Elmalı
80'
K. Ayhan← M. Lemina
83'
Can KeleşPenalty confirmed
84'
Carlos Cuesta
85'
H. HajradinovićPenalty
90+1'
Cafú← M. Ben Ouanes
90'
D. Mertens← L. Torreira
90'
Y. Demir← A. Bardakcı

Possession

47%Kasımpaşa

Shots

14Kasımpaşa

Pass accuracy

48%Kasımpaşa

Statistics

KasımpaşaGalatasaray
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots18
2.38Expected Goals (xG)2.72
10Corners3
13Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots18
8On Target6
4Off Target7
2Blocked5
12Inside Box10
2Outside Box8
Passing
47%Possession53%
319Total Passes368
233Accurate Passes288
73%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
0.16Goals Prevented0.16
Discipline
13Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray

Kasımpaşa and Galatasaray drew 3-3 in League #203 on March 2, 2025.

Goals: V. Osimhen (12' pen, 71'), M. Ben Ouanes (52'), J. Brekalo (61'), M. Lemina (69'), H. Hajradinović (85' pen).

Galatasaray controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 14.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.