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Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
Nuno da Costa 77'
A. Kara 57'
M. Icardi 34' (OG)
Carlos Vinícius 90'
M. Icardi 83', 48'
D. Mertens 27'
3/17/2024League #203League #203 · Round 30Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kasımpaşa33%
×Draw22%
Galatasaray44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
1.57
Galatasaray
1.85

Galatasaray creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.20
Galatasaray
1.90

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.80
Galatasaray
0.93

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
56%
Kasımpaşa or Galatasaray
78%
Draw or Galatasaray
67%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
16%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
79%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
46%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
21%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
84%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
55%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
43%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.20 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Galatasaray attack 1.90 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
33%
level
22%
Galatasaray scores more
44%

Galatasaray at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
Nuno da CostaKasımpaşaKasımpaşa · F
8.3

Match Events

14'
Mortadha Ben Ouanes
27'
D. Mertens↳ B. Yılmaz
29'
Kenneth Omeruo
34'
M. IcardiOwn goal
48'
M. Icardi↳ D. Mertens
53'
Gökhan Gül
57'
A. Kara↳ Nuno da Costa
63'
W. Zaha← K. Aktürkoğlu
70'
Aytaç Kara
74'
H. Ziyech← K. Ayhan
77'
Nuno da Costa↳ M. Ben Ouanes
79'
Cláudio Winck
83'
M. Icardi↳ H. Ziyech
89'
Tetê← L. Torreira
89'
Carlos Vinícius← D. Mertens
90+5'
Carlos Vinícius
90'
E. Gedik← Y. Özcan
90'
Carlos Vinícius

Possession

40%Kasımpaşa

Shots

20Kasımpaşa

Pass accuracy

46%Kasımpaşa

Statistics

KasımpaşaGalatasaray
Overview
40%Possession60%
20Total Shots17
2.03Expected Goals (xG)2.53
2Corners4
12Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots17
5On Target9
11Off Target4
4Blocked4
8Inside Box12
12Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
292Total Passes453
190Accurate Passes343
65%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
6Offsides1

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Kasımpaşa 4-3 in League #203 on March 17, 2024.

Goals: D. Mertens (27'), M. Icardi (34' o.g., 48', 83'), A. Kara (57'), Nuno da Costa (77'), Carlos Vinícius (90').

Galatasaray controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 20.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.