Galatasaray 3–3 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

Galatasaray

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Kasımpaşa

M. Icardi 34'

V. Osimhen 28', 20'

Nuno da Costa 90+5'

H. Hajradinović 83' (pen)

M. Fall 44'

9/28/2024

League #203 · Round 7RAMS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Galatasaray61%

×Draw19%

Kasımpaşa20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GalatasarayExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.30

Galatasaray

2.40

Kasımpaşa

1.30

Galatasaray creates 85% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 3 away

2.46

creates per match

1.67

0.93

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Galatasaray

2.46

Kasımpaşa

1.67

allows per match

Galatasaray

0.93

Kasımpaşa

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw

80%

Galatasaray or Kasımpaşa

81%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

39%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+

40%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals

91%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

69%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

42%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

73%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

37%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

76%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.46 + Kasımpaşa defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.40

Kasımpaşa attack 1.67 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Galatasaray scores more

61%

level

19%

Kasımpaşa scores more

20%

Galatasaray at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Hajradinović

Kasımpaşa · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

V. Osimhen↳ A. Bardakcı

28'

V. Osimhen↳ Gabriel Sara

30'

K. Omeruo← M. Ben Ouanes

34'

M. Icardi↳ I. Jakobs

44'

M. Fall↳ Cláudio Winck

46'

B. Yılmaz← R. Sallai

46'

D. Mertens← V. Osimhen

46'

G. Gül← Cafú

53'

Mamadou FallPenalty cancelled

57'

Haris Hajradinović

63'

B. Kutlu← Gabriel Sara

63'

K. Ayhan← Y. Akgün

66'

Abdülkerim Bardakcı

69'

Dries Mertens

74'

M. Batshuayi← M. Icardi

74'

J. Espinoza← A. Barák

79'

Gökhan Gül

81'

Mamadou FallPenalty confirmed

83'

H. HajradinovićPenalty

87'

Mamadou Fall

90+8'

S. Çiftpınar← Nuno da Costa

90+5'

Nuno da Costa↳ H. Hajradinović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GalatasarayKasımpaşa

Overview

50%Possession50%

7Total Shots12

1.06Expected Goals (xG)2.29

2Corners4

10Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots12

3On Target6

1Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

1Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

396Total Passes398

305Accurate Passes297

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

-1.32Goals Prevented-1.32

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa

Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa drew 3-3 in League #203 on September 28, 2024.

Goals: V. Osimhen (20', 28'), M. Icardi (34'), M. Fall (44'), H. Hajradinović (83' pen), Nuno da Costa (90+5').

Galatasaray controlled possession (50%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at RAMS Park in İstanbul.

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa