Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Karviná II vs Frýdlant — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frýdlant
Frýdlant
5/22/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 23Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Karviná II61%
×Draw19%
Frýdlant20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
2.44
Frýdlant
1.36

Karviná II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Karviná II
2.84
Frýdlant
1.69

allows per match

Karviná II
1.03
Frýdlant
2.04

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Frýdlant+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Frýdlant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
80%
Karviná II or Frýdlant
81%
Draw or Frýdlant
39%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
39%
Frýdlant wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
91%
Karviná II 2+ goals
70%
Karviná II 3+ goals
43%
Frýdlant 1+ goals
74%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
39%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
75%
Frýdlant (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Frýdlant away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 2.84 + Frýdlant defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.44

Frýdlant attack 1.69 + Karviná II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Karviná II scores more
61%
level
19%
Frýdlant scores more
20%

Karviná II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná II vs Frýdlant

Karviná II beat Frýdlant 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.