Frýdlant 2–1 Karviná II: Result & Stats

Frýdlant

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Karviná II

8/19/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 3Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Frýdlant37%

×Draw23%

Karviná II40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrýdlantExpected goals in this matchKarviná II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.73

Frýdlant

1.64

Karviná II

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 37 away

1.50

creates per match

1.51

1.94

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Frýdlant

1.50

Karviná II

1.51

allows per match

Frýdlant

1.94

Karviná II

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par

Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Karviná II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw

60%

Frýdlant or Karviná II

77%

Draw or Karviná II

63%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+

18%

Karviná II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals

81%

Frýdlant 2+ goals

49%

Frýdlant 3+ goals

23%

Karviná II 1+ goals

82%

Karviná II 2+ goals

52%

Karviná II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)

48%

Karviná II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Karviná II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.50 + Karviná II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Karviná II attack 1.51 + Frýdlant defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Frýdlant scores more

37%

level

23%

Karviná II scores more

40%

Karviná II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff