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Frýdlant vs Karviná II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Frýdlant
Frýdlant
FT
2 – 1
Karviná II
Karviná II
8/7/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 2Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Frýdlant38%
×Draw22%
Karviná II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdlant
1.73
Karviná II
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

creates per match

Frýdlant
1.98
Karviná II
2.37

allows per match

Frýdlant
1.21
Karviná II
1.47

finishing

Frýdlant+0.00on par
Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdlant ↓

Karviná II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Frýdlant or draw
60%
Frýdlant or Karviná II
78%
Draw or Karviná II
62%

Winning margin

Frýdlant wins by 2+
19%
Karviná II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Frýdlant 1+ goals
82%
Frýdlant 2+ goals
52%
Frýdlant 3+ goals
25%
Karviná II 1+ goals
83%
Karviná II 2+ goals
53%
Karviná II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Frýdlant (draw refunded)
48%
Karviná II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdlant at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.21 · 47 matches

Karviná II away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdlant attack 1.98 + Karviná II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.73

Karviná II attack 2.37 + Frýdlant defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Frýdlant scores more
38%
level
22%
Karviná II scores more
40%

Karviná II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdlant vs Karviná II

Frýdlant beat Karviná II 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion 1. BFK Frýdlant in Frýdlant nad Ostravicí.