Kariobangi Sharks 1–1 AFC Leopards: Result & Stats

Kariobangi Sharks

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AFC Leopards

10/20/2024

FKF Premier League · Round 5Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks36%

×Draw28%

AFC Leopards36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kariobangi SharksExpected goals in this matchAFC Leopards

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

Kariobangi Sharks

1.21

AFC Leopards

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 146 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.25

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.38

AFC Leopards

1.17

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks

1.25

AFC Leopards

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

AFC Leopards →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw

64%

Kariobangi Sharks or AFC Leopards

72%

Draw or AFC Leopards

64%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

15%

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

70%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

34%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

12%

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

70%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

34%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

50%

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 146 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.38 + AFC Leopards defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

AFC Leopards attack 1.17 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

36%

level

28%

AFC Leopards scores more

36%

Kariobangi Sharks at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff