AFC Leopards 0–0 Kariobangi Sharks: Result & Stats

AFC Leopards

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kariobangi Sharks

2/9/2025

FKF Premier League · Round 20Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

AFC Leopards38%

×Draw30%

Kariobangi Sharks31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC LeopardsExpected goals in this matchKariobangi Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.95

AFC Leopards

1.08

Kariobangi Sharks

0.95

AFC Leopards creates 14% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 144 away

1.15

creates per match

1.04

0.86

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

AFC Leopards

1.15

Kariobangi Sharks

1.04

allows per match

AFC Leopards

0.86

Kariobangi Sharks

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw

69%

AFC Leopards or Kariobangi Sharks

70%

Draw or Kariobangi Sharks

62%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+

15%

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals

66%

AFC Leopards 2+ goals

29%

AFC Leopards 3+ goals

10%

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals

61%

Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals

25%

Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)

55%

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.04 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Leopards scores more

38%

level

30%

Kariobangi Sharks scores more

31%

AFC Leopards at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff