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AFC Leopards vs Kariobangi Sharks — Shield Cup 2022

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
2 – 1
Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
6/29/2024Shield CupShield Cup · 3rd Place FinalUlinzi Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

AFC Leopards63%
×Draw20%
Kariobangi Sharks17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
2.12
Kariobangi Sharks
0.98

AFC Leopards creates 116% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
2.67
Kariobangi Sharks
1.29

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.67
Kariobangi Sharks
1.57

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
83%
AFC Leopards or Kariobangi Sharks
80%
Draw or Kariobangi Sharks
37%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
40%
Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
88%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
62%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
35%
Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
62%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
26%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
79%
Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 2.67 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.29 + AFC Leopards defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
63%
level
20%
Kariobangi Sharks scores more
17%

AFC Leopards at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shield Cup: AFC Leopards 2–1 Kariobangi Sharks

AFC Leopards beat Kariobangi Sharks 2-1 in Shield Cup on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Ulinzi Sports Complex in Nairobi.