Karela 1–4 Ebusua Dwarfs: Result & Stats

Karela

FT

1 – 4

Ebusua Dwarfs

M. Kamaradin 76'

M. Sumaila 81', 49', 12'

E. Afram 67'

6/28/2021

Premier League · Round 31Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Karela53%

×Draw27%

Ebusua Dwarfs20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarelaExpected goals in this matchEbusua Dwarfs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.79

Karela

1.46

Ebusua Dwarfs

0.79

Karela creates 85% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

0.85

0.74

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Karela

1.42

Ebusua Dwarfs

0.85

allows per match

Karela

0.74

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karela+0.00on par

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Karela or draw

80%

Karela or Ebusua Dwarfs

73%

Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs

47%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+

27%

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals

77%

Karela 2+ goals

43%

Karela 3+ goals

18%

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

55%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

19%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)

72%

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.74 · 110 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.42 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.85 + Karela defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Karela scores more

53%

level

27%

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

20%

Karela at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Sumaila

14'

49'

M. Sumaila

57'

E. Sarfo← E. Sarfo

57'

K. Boateng← K. Boateng

59'

67'

E. Afram

76'

M. Kamaradin

81'

M. Sumaila

90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff