Ebusua Dwarfs 1–2 Karela: Result & Stats

Ebusua Dwarfs

FT

1 – 2

Karela

B. Acquah 83'

D. Taylor 45+2'

U. Bashiru 24'

2/14/2021

Premier League · Round 14Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs49%

×Draw28%

Karela23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ebusua DwarfsExpected goals in this matchKarela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.36

Karela

0.84

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 62% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

1.41

creates per match

0.60

1.09

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.41

Karela

0.60

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs

1.09

Karela

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Karela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw

77%

Ebusua Dwarfs or Karela

72%

Draw or Karela

51%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+

23%

Karela wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals

74%

Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals

39%

Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals

16%

Karela 1+ goals

57%

Karela 2+ goals

21%

Karela 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)

68%

Karela (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Karela away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.41 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Karela attack 0.60 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more

49%

level

28%

Karela scores more

23%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

U. Bashiru

45+2'

D. Taylor

77'

83'

B. Acquah

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff